Despite living in the 21st century, a period of technology and social media, the world still faces plenty of international conflicts, and arm conflicts are among them. Armed conflicts, that is wars, are purposely arranged battles of opposing parties' armed forces with the main goal of inflicting the most possible harm on the opponent, up to the elimination of his military and economic strength. Modern armed conflicts have the characteristics of hybrid wars, in which traditional (weapons) and non-traditional (political propaganda, disinformation, technologies for distortion of the information space) combat strategies are used. One of the biggest hybrid wars that caused huge damage and losses, as well as a crack in the system of global security in the present time is the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Ukraine was drawn into the conflict in 2014 by the Russian Federation. This wreaked havoc in postwar Europe's international system. The main premise of Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine, which has now developed into open armed aggression on the part of the Russian Federation, is a systemic crisis caused by the Russian political elite's efforts to restore the Russian Empire, expand control over a huge part of the world, and reclaim the world hegemony lost after the Soviet Union's economic decline and collapse. In truth, Russia has been at war with Ukraine for more than 300 years, with the goal of ensuring Russian sovereignty over the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, as well as Ukrainian territory and natural resources, including land. In addition, Ukraine has a considerable Russian-speaking minority, which has long been a source of friction between the two nations, as some Russians expressed worry that the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine are under threat.
The Kremlin was dissatisfied that Ukraine inherited from the USSR an army of almost a million personnel and the world's biggest nuclear arsenal. Kyiv handed up the missiles to Russia in exchange for security guarantees (Budapest Memorandum) and economic assistance.
Great displeasure Russia had due to Ukraine's rapprochement with Western countries and its course on economic integration through an association agreement with the European Union. A few months before the potential signing, in the summer of 2013, Russia started to put significant economic pressure on Ukraine, as Ukrainian exports were nearly blocked at the border. Due to Russia's pressure, plans to sign an agreement with Brussels were postponed. Such a decision sparked the demonstrations in Ukraine. [1]
As a result of the political vacuum in Kyiv, Russia seized Crimea in March 2014. It marked a turning point and the start of an unrecognized conflict. At the same time, separatism in Donbas was fueled by the Russian and local paramilitary groups. “People's republics” were established in Donetsk and Luhansk, commanded by individuals from the Russian Federation who wore uniforms without identity markings. The response of Kyiv was cautious as only after the presidential elections did it decide to use a significant number of forces called “anti-terrorist operation” (ATO). The Ukrainian army started to pressure the separatists in the summer of 2014, but as Kyiv alleges, Russia utilized its forces extensively in Donbas at the end of August. Near Ilovaisk, where Ukrainian forces were routed, the fighting peaked. The fighting along the whole front line came to an end with the signing of a cease-fire agreement in Minsk in September. [1]
Then the positional war began. Under the mediation of Germany and France, Minsk-2 was signed, recommendations of which the parties criticize one another for not completely implementing.
In response to the refusal of the US and NATO to Putin's ultimatum in December 2021 to not admit Ukraine and other post-Soviet nations to the North Atlantic Alliance and not supply them with military help, on February 21, 2022, Russia's president recognized the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People's Republic” and “Luhansk People's Republic” as independent states. Then, on the morning of February 24, the Russian leader declared the launch of a “special military operation” against Ukraine, referring to the aim a “demilitarization” of the country. The oppressor's armed forces began to target Ukrainian cities and military facilities, not just in Donbas. Despite the difficulties and constantly looming danger, Ukrainian forces continuously repel the enemy.
Analyzing the aggressor's actions throughout the years, it is clear that the Russian Federation's major purpose in connection to Ukraine is to undermine and decentralize our state, to install a pro-Russian, controlled Russian leadership and to turn country from the European path, by using different strategies and tactics, ending with warfare. The ongoing conflict has caused some serious consequences for Ukraine and the world. The most devastating thing is that a humanitarian crisis has occurred with thousands of people tortured and murdered and millions being displaced. The confrontation as well has had a severe economic impact on Ukraine, seriously damaging each sector of the country's economy, leading to its shrinking by more than 35% and the monthly budget deficit of Ukraine about 5 billion US dollars. [2]
At the same time, the enemy as well suffers losses, as international ties have been strained, with several nations slapping various types of sanctions on the Russian Federation in reaction to its actions. A total of 12 900 sanctions have been imposed since the beginning of the Russian invasion, mostly by the UK, EU, Canada, Japan, and the US being the country with the biggest number of sanctions – more than 3 126. Thus, Russia's budget is being drained by the conflict and earnings are being cut off by sanctions. [3]
Ukraine has learned some lessons from the conflict. First and the most important is that Russia is our eternal enemy, which will always try to destroy our sovereignty and nation, and thus no cooperation of any kind is possible. Secondly, propaganda and misinformation have become important components of hybrid warfare, with both sides utilizing social media and other internet channels to convey their ideas. Russia used a variety of “active measures”, including espionage, cyberattacks and internet-based misinformation at the beginning and throughout the war. These methods were designed to weaken Ukraine's civil defenses and prepare its people for a takeover. [4]
Active measures, however, appear to have failed in Ukraine. Russia was outplayed and had little success with such activities. The aggressor's justifications for invading Ukraine, propaganda and disinformation were discredited, even “pre-bunked” to the point of being ignored upon arrival. In comparison, Ukraine used social media campaigns to bolster domestic morale, expose Russian war crimes, rally international support and even crowdfund defensive arms. Thus, the situation emphasizes the significance of developing and investing in cybersecurity and the IT industry. It also showed the strength and will of Ukrainians and what they are capable of when facing the threat together.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a complex fight deeply rooted in historical, economic and geopolitical factors, and which led to horrific damages. Ukraine has learned the lesson and intends to complete the liberalization of all seized areas, as well as restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity within internationally recognized boundaries in 1991, make Russia compensate our country and people for the widespread devastation it has spread and make the war criminals face justice.
REFERENCES:
[1] Гончаренко, Роман (2022, February 28). Росія проти України. як дійшло до великої війни – DW – 28.02.2022. dw.com. URL: https://www.dw.com/uk/rosiia-proty-ukrainy-yak-diishlo-do-velykoi-viiny/a-60242572
[2] Війна знищила 35% економіки України - ООН. Інформаційне агентство. (n.d.). URL: https://www.unian.ua/economics/finance/viyna-znishchila-35-ekonomiki-ukrajini-oon-12122658.html
[3] Nikoladze, M. (2023, April 22). Russia sanctions database. Atlantic Council. URL: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/russia-sanctions-database/
[4] Kong, W., & Marler, T. (2022, November 28). Ukraine's lessons for the future of Hybrid Warfare. RAND Corporation. URL: https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/11/ukraines-lessons-for-the-future-of-hybrid-warfare.html
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Науковий керівник: Шнирков Олександр Олександрович, кандидат економічних наук, доцент, доцент кафедри світової економіки
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