The transition from centralized planned economic management to market economic relations calls for the development and application of new forms of public administration at the regional level.
The results of forecasting are used by the state authorities of the regions of Ukraine when adopting various managerial decisions aimed at overcoming the existing problems. The very process of forecasting contributes to the organization of constructive interaction between science, business, public organizations and regional authorities, the formation of agreed views on the problems and prospects of the region.
Forecasting is very important in the theoretical aspect as it is a kind of catalyst for conducting numerous studies, improving their methodology.
The problems of regional forecasting are revealed in the works of many well-known foreign and domestic scientists. Research results have created the basis for forecasting. At the same time, a number of issues for developing forecasts of socio-economic development of the regions remains unresolved.
The scientifically grounded forecasting system has not been created yet. The common methodological approaches to the development of forecasting systems are not formed or implemented. An algorithm, technology and organization of their training are violated. Applicable toolkit does not match the types of forecasts.
The purpose of the study is to develop and substantiate scientific and practical recommendations for improving the methodological provision of socio-economic forecasting in the Podillya economic region.
Podilskyi economic region occupies an advantageous central territorial location in the Southwest of Ukraine [4]. This region makes a significant share of gross additional production, especially agricultural, in the total production of our country.
In spite of favorable climatic and natural-resource conditions, namely the location of the economic region, in recent years there has been a significant decline in the level of social and economic development, in particular: the volume of housing construction, the introduction of health facilities and educational institutions have decreased; the provision of retail space, services for public catering and consumer services decreased; the number of places in recreation facilities, the frequency of visits to theaters and cinema has decreased. Particularly unsatisfactory are these trends in rural areas and in small towns with a single-branch structure of production.
The Podilsky economic region is significantly behind the all-Ukrainian level of per capita incomes. Accordingly, there are less money and savings for citizens, accounting for only 55% of the average per capita cost and savings in Ukraine [3].
In the region, low wages and a significant part of the able-bodied population are not employed in social work.
As already mentioned, agricultural production prevails in a certain economic region and, undoubtedly, this region has high potential opportunities for efficient development of the economic complex.
However, in the region there are a number of acute problems of a complex nature that require a priority solution.
The most important problem is the loading of production capacities in the region and a sharp decline in unemployment, which in the region exceeds 14% [2]. This requires appropriate investment to create new jobs, upgrade and modernize outdated equipment, and enhance innovative activity in the region.
To date, innovation activity in the region is characterized by a reduction of public spending on research, its depreciation under the influence of inflationary processes. Particularly reduced costs related to the leading areas of specialization in the region, which should be the focus of attention. The latter include the development of measures to prevent a structural crisis, the development of multidisciplinary agriculture, the agro-industrial complex as a whole and production, social and market infrastructures on a scientific basis.
The first priority in the study should be minimization of negative impact on the environment, introduction of new energy saving and resource-saving technologies, development of environmentally oriented energy, in particular, the use of additional energy resources of small rivers, wind, biogas, mobile thermal power stations, etc. [5].
The problem that needs to be solved in the regions of the region is the preservation and increase of the fertility of agricultural land and, first of all, arable land. This problem is due to the fact that highly intensive agricultural use of land is often accompanied by a violation of scientifically grounded agrotechnical methods, failure to crop rotation, insufficient fertilization under cultivated crops, limited liming of acid soils, insufficient control of soil erosion. All this negatively affects agricultural productivity all this negatively affects the productivity of agricultural land, worsens the balance of organic substances in grants, leads to their oxidation and reduced yields [1].
Reform and restructuring of economic activity should first of all be aimed at the comprehensive development of farming and effective forms of collective farming in the countryside, taking advantage of cooperation, taking into account the necessary level of agricultural machinery mechanization.
In the perspective of economic development of the Podillya region, the following should be priorities:
• effective monitoring for improvement of the ecological situation;
• development and expansion of foreign economic relations;
• formation of a territorially integrated macroeconomic economic complex of the region;
• the social orientation of the reforms and raising the standard of living of the population are correctly expressed;
• creation of opportunities for self-financing development of basic industries through reinvestment.
References:
1. Godoviz AV Strategic models of functioning of agricultural enterprises in the market conditions // Management of modern organization: experience, problems and perspectives: materials of the day-time internship. science-practice conf. / Ed. O.P. Mamchenko, O.V. Kozhevina, LI Peter's - Barnaul: View of the Alt. Un-th, 2016. - P. 266-274.
2. Gutsulyak G.D. Social-economic and environmental problems in Ukraine and directions for their solution // Social-economic research in the transition period. Natural-resource potential in the system of spatial development. - L .: IRD NAS of Ukraine, 2014. - P. 50-55.
3. Vasilenko V.N. Architecture of the Regional Economic Space: Monograph / NAS of Ukraine. Institute of Economic and Legal Studies. - Donetsk: OOO South-East, LTD., 2006 - 311 p.
4. Ukraine 2020. Strategy of National Modernization. / Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. [Electronic resource] - Access mode: http://civic.kmu.gov.ua/consult_mvc_kmu/consult/old/show_fullbill/956.
5. Leontiev V. Interdisciplinary analysis of the impact of the structure of the economy on the environment / V. Leontiev, D. Ford // Economics and Mathematical Methods. - 2012. - Vol. VIII. - Whip 3. - P. 370-400.
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Науковий керівник: Буяк Леся Михайлівна, доктор економічних наук, доцент кафедри економічної кібернетики та інформатики Тернопільського національного економічного університету
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